At the summit of power

On the face of it, China’s next leadership succession was settled at a Communist Party congress in 2007. The party’s senior members decided that in 2012-13, Xi Jinping would take over the roles as head of the party and president currently held by Hu Jintao, while Li Keqiang would become the next premier.

Although there have been some questions about the process since then – Mr Xi did not win an expected promotion last autumn to the commission that runs the military – most analysts believe the succession is still on track.

Yet even so, there is still a lot to play for. With little transparency or established procedures, these sorts of high-level decisions are never completely settled until the very last minute. More to the point, the succession is about much more than just the top two jobs. (In the CCP’s hierarchy, Premier Wen Jiabao is actually number three.)

Since Mao Zedong’s death in 1976, the party has tried to move away from having a dominant figure; key decisions are now taken by a collective leadership. President Hu is believed to enjoy certain powers of veto and the ability to call or cancel meetings. But analysts say the decision, for instance, to appreciate the currency or to launch a major stimulus package would be taken by the party’s nine-member Standing Committee. Thus, being a member of the Standing Committee is a much more influential position than being in the US Cabinet.

In the 2012-13 transition, between five and seven committee members are expected to retire, meaning that a large number of important jobs are up for grabs. It is one of these roles that analysts believe Bo Xilai is positioning himself for.

Some observers believe that the succession race is already being felt in Chinese political life. It could be one of the reasons for Beijing’s recently more assertive diplomatic stance or, with politicians afraid of being seen to be soft, for harsh sentences given to dissidents.

“Succession could be one reason for why things seem to have tightened up so much in recent months,” says Mr Shambaugh. “When there is uncertainty, there also tends to be risk aversion and conservatism.”

Succession story

If Xi Jinping takes over as president and party boss in 2012-13, he will be the core of what Chinese call the “fifth generation” of leaders. After the Communist party took power in 1949, Mao Zedong became head of the first, staying in power until his death almost 30 years later. He was followed by Deng Xiaoping, who remained the dominant figure until his death in 1997. Jiang Zemin led the third until he retired in 2002-03, and Hu Jintao leads the fourth. At each transition the top leader has been less powerful and the other senior leaders more influential, leading analysts to describe the system as a collective leadership. With the transition from Mr Jiang to Mr Hu in 2002-03, the process has become more institutionalised and more predictable. The country’s top leaders are now expected to retire after 10 years at the top.

Of the nine Standing Committee members, five are supposed to retire in 2012 because they will be 70 or over. Li Changchun and He Guoqiang will be 68 and 69, and it is unclear whether they will be forced to go. Xi Jinping, and Li Keqiang, are expected to be the next president and premier.