There are plenty of landmarks for rugby union’s Six Nations championship to mark in 2010. It is the centenary both of France’s full admission to the tournament, which meant it was the Five Nations for its first nine decades – until the admission of Italy. Also, it is the centenary of England’s national stadium Twickenham. To add coincidence, in 1910 – as it will be this time – Twickenham was host to Wales in the opening round.
Even without that, there would be a sense of anticipation that is felt particularly in even-numbered years. In the odd-numbered years, the championship is played in the shadow of events to come later – World Cups in 2007 and 2011 and the British and Irish Lions tour of South Africa in 2009.
But in the even-numbered years, there is nothing bigger in northern hemisphere rugby, a tournament that is an end in itself rather than being at least in part a preparation for what is to come.
What this will not do, though, is bring it entirely out of the giant shadow cast by football in the sports spread market.
As Sporting Index’s rugby trader Andy Hunter says: “No matter how big a match is in the context of the Six Nations, if it is up against Manchester United v Arsenal in the same timeslot on another channel, a lot of people will not notice.”
One clear advantage the Six Nations does have is being broadcast in its entirety live on terrestrial television. Spread firms appreciate the service provided by specialist sports channels on satellite and cable – it is no fluke that the two industries have risen in parallel – but they are also aware of the benefits of having big events on terrestrial channels.
Shaun Howells, rugby trader at Spreadex, says: “Having it on BBC does make a real difference, since so many more people see the games live.”
Still, the football issue remains. So, there will have been considerable relief among rugby traders when the Arsenal v Chelsea match scheduled for the first weekend of the Six Nations was not placed in the late afternoon slot against the 5pm kick-off of England v Wales at Twickenham.
Mr Hunter says: “We would expect that to be one of our bigger days, along with England v France. We’d expect to take 1,000 to 1,200 bets on a Six Nations game, compared with 900 to 1,000 for an autumn international.
“Our record was the 1,500-1,600 we took on the World Cup semi-final between France and England a couple of years ago.”
Popular bets include supremacy – based on the points difference between the teams – the shirt numbers of try-scorers and the total number of points.
Mr Hunter says: “Our crazier punters love the market in which you multiply a team’s first-half points by its second-half. You can get huge variations, and England’s recent second-half form means you’ve got a real risk of ending with zero.”
One impact of the autumn internationals will be that points spreads will be pitched a little lower. Mr Hunter notes: “Eighty per cent of matches came out below the spread. The trend has been downwards in the past few years, but we saw some really spectacular lows, with matches finishing 17 and 23 points below the spread
Howells says: “While France played well, they are not playing as expansively as they have, and nor are Wales, while England were extremely poor.”
England’s performances had a notable effect on the market. While rugby punters have never been as determinedly nationalistic as their football counterparts, the patriotic pound has always had a role. Mr Hunter says: “We usually had to move the spread a couple of points in England games to take account of it.”
Not any more – for the moment at least. Mr Hunter says: “With all the criticism England were getting in the media and the evidence of performances, we found that our customers were quite happy to bet against them.”
Other popular markets include 60 point indexes on final placing. At the beginning of December Extrabet (1st place 60 points, descending to 30, 20, 10, 5, 0) reckoned France at 36-39 points, reigning champions Ireland at 32-35, Wales 25-28, England 22-25, Scotland 11-14 and Italy 1-3.
Mr Howells says: “France did better than expected in the autumn and were particularly good against South Africa.”
Wayne Lincoln, Sporting Index trading spokesman, points to a downside on the leading British and Irish teams: “Wales and Ireland both had a lot of players in the British Lions squad in South Africa, so they’ll have been playing non-stop for 18 months while England seem to have no plan and no style.”
There may be value to be had in backing Italy. Amendments to the laws should favour their playing style, while Mr Hunter points out: “In handicap betting, they nearly always cover their handicap, so it is often a good bet to sell their opponents.”
There is, though, a rider to this: “They need to find a reliable kicker to turn the penalties their forwards win into points, and Sergio Parisse being out injured is a massive blow. I reckon he’s worth three points to them.”
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