While football’s 24-hour cycle of gossip and speculation means that “news” is continuously made off the field, this December things that really matter are happening away from the matches themselves.
The draw for the 2010 World Cup took place in Cape Town last Friday. Then, next week in Nyon, Switzerland, comes the draw for the knock-out stages of the 2009-10 Champions League.
It represents the point at which the tournament leaves behind the money-making pool stages of autumn, with their built-in second chances, and moves into its more meaningful phase, with each pair of adversaries knowing that one will leave the competition while the other progresses towards the final, to be held this year at Real Madrid’s Estadio Santiago Bernabeu.
Though the Champions League has been described in some quarters as the sporting equivalent of the Holy Roman Empire – a name in which every word is misleading – it has few critics among the spread betting companies, for whom it has become extremely big business.
The last two finals could hardly have been better for them. It might have been thought that the 2008 final between Manchester United and Chelsea, two English powerhouses, represented a peak for the betting firms.
But Chris Field, football trader for Spreadex, says: “Manchester United against Barcelona in 2009 was just as good for us. The only way we would expect to get more business than from a Champions League final featuring a top English club would be if England got to the World Cup Final. An England v Brazil final would be as big as it could get.”
Once they have digested the pairings for the final 16, the next thing the traders will look at is the television schedules. Each firm will offer markets on all eight games, but the extent of take-up varies according to who is televising it.
Mr Field says: “We would expect to do more business on the games that are on ITV1, which has a much bigger reach, than on those which are on satellite stations. And clients naturally tend to go for games involving Manchester United and other English teams.”
Alongside the markets offered on and during specific matches, there are longer-term indexes, most starting at 60 points for winning, with 40 points for reaching the final, 30 for semi-finalists, 20 for reaching the quarters and 10 for getting to the last 16, on the final outcome.
Chelsea and Barcelona were heading these indexes, both close to the 30 mark, as the pool stage went into its final round.
Chris Shillington at Extrabet, points to a difference between this and the fixed odds market: “Barcelona are marginally ahead in the fixed odds, reflecting a feeling that they’re slightly likelier to win the tournament,” he says.
He continues: “But they also have the occasional off day, while Chelsea are seen as extremely solid and consistent, with a strong record of making it to the later stages. Barca started the season at about 30, while Chelsea were trading at 24-27, but they have progressed relentlessly.”
A second layer is represented by Arsenal, Manchester United and Real Madrid, all trading in the lower 20s. Real are capable of huge variations in form, but, Mr Field says: “If they get anywhere near the final, they’ll have a big advantage.”
However, there may be better value among slightly less familiar names.
Wayne Lincoln at Sporting Index, is not surprised that Sevilla’s price has risen. “People like their playing style,” he says. “They’ve coped with the loss of key players and have won the Uefa Cup twice, so could be a real danger in the later stages.”
Mr Shillington says: “We have a number of shrewder punters who spot good value among the less publicised continental teams. Lyon are the top club in France, so they get consistent Champions League experience.”
Lyon has progressed at the expense of Liverpool, whose European season will restart in the Europa League. This is bad news for them and their fans, and for those who backed them to make progress in the Champions League.
However, says Mr Field, it will not necessarily also be bad for business. He says: “It will raise the profile of the tournament and they’ll be playing on Thursday when there is less competition from other events.”
Even so they will have to do something exceptional to move any market as far as Tottenham’s 9-1 Premier League victory over Wigan.
Season-long indexes on high scoring lurched spectacularly while Jermain Defoe’s five goals led to violent revisions of the spread on his season’s total.
Given football punters’ ingrained preference for buying rather than selling spreads, bookmakers took a beating, leading Mr Field to take a philosophical view: “At least the match was not live on television. If it had been, there would have been three or four times the business.”
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