Jacob Zuma, the controversial deputy head of South Africa’s ruling African National Congress, on Monday emerged as favourite to lead the party at its elections next month after he trounced his rival, President Thabo Mbeki, in a key preliminary vote.
After five years of feuding between the two, Mr Zuma has for the first time gained an undisputed advantage in a race that has plunged the ANC into its greatest crisis in decades.
In a sign of his confidence, Mr Zuma was on a “private” visit abroad on Monday, even as the party was still calculating the scale of his victory in the weekend’s nomination voting by party branches in the country’s nine provinces.
Barring an extraordinary change of heart by the party’s electors before they vote next month, analysts conclude he will be the ANC’s next president and the likely next leader of the country.
Mr Zuma’s dramatic comeback after embroilment last year in a corruption scandal and his acquittal on rape charges reflects a deep fissure in the ANC, amid concerns that it has become too pro-business under Mr Mbeki and lost touch with the people.
Mr Zuma’s principal supporters are on the left but he insists he would not oversee a U-turn in policy.
His greatest test may come in his dealings with his long-time rival. If he wins next month, Mr Zuma will have to work out how to rein in the hotheads among his supporters and reach an accommodation with Mr Mbeki, whose term as president lasts until 2009.
ANC insiders agree that attempts by one politician to bring down the other would not only paralyse the government but could also split the ANC. “December may be the beginning,” said one ANC member. “My fear is the war will continue.”
While Mr Mbeki won the support of four provinces to Mr Zuma’s five, the average margin of victory for Mr Zuma was far higher. He was backed by 2,270 branches to 1,396 backing the president, according to South African Broadcasting Corporation.
The result all but scotches the chances of a “compromise” candidate emerging at the last minute.
The focus now shifts to Mr Mbeki, who has been seeking a third term as party leader partly, it is assumed, to deny his rival the post. He fired Mr Zuma as the country’s deputy president two years ago after Mr Zuma’s chief financial adviser was convicted of corruption.
Some advisers are hoping the president’s powers of patronage can still rescue his fortunes before the party conference, which starts on December 16. Others have suggested they cede victory for now, but hope Mr Zuma will soon be put on trial for a second time on corruption charges and so will not be able to lead the party into the national elections in 2009.
A corruption case against Mr Zuma, relating to a multi-billion dollar arms deal, was struck off the roll last year but national prosecutors are widely believed to be close to charging him again. He denies wrongdoing.
One of Mr Zuma’s aides said Mr Mbeki would be advised to concede defeat and open “unity” talks, possibly under the aegis of Nelson Mandela. “Mbeki could be a significant player in seeking a seamless transition of power.”
However, the more radical scenariothat Zuma supporters are starting to air is that, if their champion wins next month, they might push for Mr Mbeki to step down next year.
