Gordon Brown is in danger of losing southern England. Deborah Mattinson, his pollster, warned party workers at a private meeting this month that the Tories have overtaken Labour in the crucial C1 and C2 social groups - the swing voters in Britain's most populous and sensitive electoral region.

The sense that the south is slipping away underlies a fierce debate in the Labour party. Labour modernisers want Mr Brown to speed up public service reform and to address the perception his government is uneasy with wealth and aspiration.