Lib Dem revival not yet a revolution

It is eight decades since Liberalism has been seen as a serious electoral option for at least three-quarters of British voters.

There have been occasional revivals and there is some residual strength in old strongholds. Yet even when the Liberals joined forces with the SDP in 1980s, they ultimately flattered to deceive.

Since then, and despite a move to the left of the political spectrum, the Lib Dems have captured and held onto a swathe of local authority and parliamentary seats from the Tories in the south as well as from Labour in the north.

But at no time have they ever looked likely, at general elections at least, to “break the mould” of British politics.

And although excitement is at a peak following Nick Clegg’s performance in last week’s TV debate, there are good reasons to suspect this will not produce a political revolution.

In 2005, the party increased its vote share by nearly 4 per cent after picking up support over the course of a campaign judged by the public as superior to those of its opponents.

This had a lot to do with the Lib Dems’ consistent opposition to the invasion of Iraq and even, in a few university towns, its promise to abolish tuition fees. But it also owed much to Charles Kennedy, then party leader, who unlike his two main rivals managed to emerge from the election with a positive poll rating.

Yet the last election brought with it a new conundrum for the Lib Dems. They gained most votes from Labour – largely on the back of protest votes or abstention on the part of supporters of the latter – but this netted them only a few extra seats.

The swing they really needed was from the Conservatives because it is in Tory-held seats where they are in closest contention. Indeed, if they had stolen as many votes from Tory MPs as they did from Labour MPs in 2005, they might have added almost 20 seats to their eventual tally of 62.

And of the 19 seats the Lib Dems could take in 2010 on a swing of under 3 per cent, 13 are Conservative.

Figures like these, of course, also represent a huge headache for the Tories. Of the 87 seats that they can take on a swing of less than five per cent – the absolute minimum needed if there is to be any chance of an overall majority for the Conservatives – 18 are being defended by Liberal Democrats.

This is why anyone hoping to read the runes needs to look not just at whether the Lib Dem surge turns out to be a spasm rather than a step-change but also at its source: are Nick Clegg’s new friends coming over in greater numbers from the Conservatives than from Labour?

At first glance, it looks as if this might well be the case: the most recent polls carried out since the debate appear to show Tories losing more support than Labour (by a margin of 4 to 2 points with ComRes, 4 to 1 with YouGov and 7 to 3 with BPIX).

Comparing the erosion of- support in those groups where the Conservatives and Labour traditionally do best, however, provides no clear picture as to who is losing out most.

What is clear, though, is that if things stay as they are now, then Labour could come third in terms of votes yet still end up being the largest party in parliament: the percentage shares in the latest BPIX poll would give Brown 267 seats, Cameron 230 seats and Clegg just 121.

The latest polls are helpful to the Conservatives in confirming those issues on which the Lib Dems are most out of line with public opinion, namely the EU and eco-taxes. It would appear, however, that nukes and Afghanistan could favour rather than hurt Mr Clegg.

Perhaps most worrying for the Tories is YouGov’s finding that 53 per cent would be happy to see a hung parliament, while less than a third (BPIX) and perhaps only around a fifth of voters (ComRes) are keen to see a Conservative majority government.

At least in the postwar period, every Liberal revival has either helped to marginally reduce the Tories majority over Labour (in the 1980s) or to deny the party power (1950, 1964 and 1974).

This election, then, might turn out to be déjà vu all over again.

Dr Tim Bale teaches politics at Sussex University, specialising in parties and elections. His most recent book is “The Conservative Party: From Thatcher to Cameron”