Putin stands at political crossroads

As Vladimir Putin criss-crossed Russia from Moscow to the Urals last week, state television was ever present to hone his image as father of the nation.

Evening news programmes lavished attention on Mr Putin’s inspection of high-tech children’s cancer units and invitations for children to Kremlin parties.

But behind the state propaganda machine, insiders talk of increasing disarray as the Kremlin grapples with a growing protest mood among Russia’s middle class since December’s disputed parliamentary elections.

Diminishing approval ratings present Mr Putin with a dilemma he has never faced before. Broad public support had always been the source of his political authority. How Russia’s prime minister responds to the protests as he seeks to return as president in elections next month – which he is still certain to win – will determine which direction he steers the country, and even how long he is able to hold on to power.

“Putin has little choice but to make concessions, otherwise he will not be able to rule,” said Mikhail Dmitriev, head of the government-connected Centre for Strategic Research. “This is a serious change when people in his team are losing authority and they will have to compromise to stay in power.”

While there have been indications that Mr Putin might be prepared to accommodate the rebellious middle class and become a more reformist “Putin 2.0”, signs emerged last week that the ex-KGB officer is unwilling to cede much ground. The Russian premier “is at a crossroads”, said Sergei Markov, a former United Russia deputy now working as one of Mr Putin’s election representatives.

“He understands that what he did before isn’t going to work. But he doesn’t know what is going to work ... A battle is breaking out for the future direction of his presidency,” Mr Markov said.

Liberal-minded elements of the Russian elite are seeking to persuade Mr Putin to loosen the reins so he can survive in power and lead a gradual evolution of the regime. Alexei Kudrin, a former finance minister and close friend of the premier, has led calls for parliamentary elections in 18 months – a nod to opposition demands after December’s alleged vote-rigging.

The Kremlin has publicly rejected this so far. But insiders say a consensus is growing that the new president will agree to fresh polls, although on the basis of new rules for party registration, opening the way for new rightwing parties, not any admission of fraud.

“Early Duma elections are [a] possible compromise and one of the easiest,” Mr Dmitriev said.

But Mr Putin will have to weigh the risks. A parliament no longer dominated by United Russia could launch an inquiry, for instance, into Mr Putin’s friends who have become billionaires under his rule.

Mr Putin’s plan is to seek to co-opt middle class protesters, said Mr Markov, who spent 10 hours with the Russian premier last week in group discussions.

“He considers that though these people are in opposition, they are citizens of Russia, and that his policies should not be exclusive but inclusive. He wants to help these people become politically defined,” Mr Markov said. “He wants to turn the non-systemic opposition into systemic opposition.”

Such magnanimity, however, does not extend to the protest organisers: “He believes they are traitors carrying out the orders of western powers and he will act against them harshly.” With the recent counter-attacks against the media, “the regime is demonstrating it can hit back. It is demonstrating it is not capitulating. All officials will just start running wild if they see the authorities are not fighting back,” Mr Markov says.

But the limits to the “managed democracy” that defined the Putin era to date are being exposed. Any attempts to go after the protest organisers and crack down on the media might only galvanise the opposition.

Mr Putin’s mindset, framed during the Cold War and Boris Yeltsin’s chaotic 1990s presidency, is likely to limit his ability to change.

“He always compares the situation with the 1990s; this is hard-wired into his head,” said Gleb Pavlovsky, a former Kremlin political consultant who recently met Mr Putin. “This forces him to oversimplify the picture into one where he must prevail against the ambitions of oligarchs and foreign powers to create anarchy, when this is really not the case.”

“The demonstrators are the ones who want order and rules to be followed,” he added. “They want an honest government.”

Some believe Mr Putin’s room for manoeuvre is rapidly diminishing. Ever more openly, members of Russia’s business and intellectual elite forecast Mr Putin may not even complete the first of what could theoretically be two further presidential terms.

“The public attitude [is] shifting independently of what Putin does and says,” said Mr Dmitriev. “The system he epitomises personally … has been outgrown by Russian society.”

“Putin will disappear,” says Sergey Aleksashenko, a former deputy central banker. “The water is already moving under the ice and there is no way of stopping it. We can only discuss how long this might take.”