Getting ready for the influx: a builder at Taipei’s Songshan airport

Taiwan and China have defied the sceptics since the inauguration of President Ma Ying-jeou two months ago, achieving a swift resumption of high-level dialogue that had been abandoned during a decade of mutual blame and suspicion while the independence-minded Democratic Progressive party ruled in Taipei.

On Friday, with Mr Ma of the Kuomintang party in power, they are set to back up the sweet talk with action. A total of 36 return flights will link several Taiwanese and Chinese cities over the next four days and over every weekend from now on, marking the beginning of the end of a ban on direct traffic links that has lasted more than half a century.

On board Friday’s flights from China will be hundreds of Chinese tourism officials and travel agents, the first official mainland tour group to visit the island. In the near future up to 3,000 Chinese citizens a day will follow them.

Taiwan, occupied by defeated nationalist forces at the end of China’s civil war in 1949, remains a self-governing island state in spite of years of hostility from the communist regime in Beijing, which has threatened invasion if Taipei moves to formalise its independence.

However, Mr Ma’s conciliatory government is also taking unilateral steps to open the island economically to China. On Thursday, the cabinet moved to allow Taiwanese mutual funds to invest 10 per cent of their assets in Chinese shares – up from just 0.4 per cent – and abolished a cap on ownership of Hong Kong shares that had been set at 10 per cent.

From Friday ...

Flights Six Chinese and five Taiwanese airlines will operate a total of 36 return weekend charter flights between the island and the mainland, the first regular air traffic between Taiwan and China since 1949. The frequency of the weekend flights will be expanded after the Olympics. Beijing and Taipei hope to introduce regular scheduled direct flights a year from now.

Tourism Chinese tourists in Taiwan arrive on the island fully legally for the first time. In 2002, Taiwan allowed visits by Chinese citizens with a visa or residency permit of a third country. Since then, but without the official approval of the Chinese government, thousands of mainland residents have toured the island. Now, Beijing has added Taiwan to its list of official travel destinations, and up to 3,000 Chinese citizens can now visit the island.

All these moves, argue Taipei and Beijing, will benefit Taiwan’s economy, build trust and lead to a solution of the conflict.

However, the road to rapprochement will get a lot bumpier from here.

This became evident last week when Wang Yi, China’s new top Taiwan policy official, told a Japanese delegation Taiwan was not qualified to join the World Health Organisation, bringing an irritated response from Taipei.

China refuses to acknowledge that Taiwan is a country, and has been blocking the island’s attempts at gaining more participation in the international community for decades. As a result, only 23 countries continue to acknowledge Taiwan diplomatically, and the island is kept out of most international organisations.

Taiwanese critics of China point out that in the course of the recent cross-strait thaw, Mr Ma proposed a “diplomatic truce”, and Hu Jintao, China’s president, responded by saying that Taiwan’s desire for international space and dignity could be discussed, explicitly mentioning the WHO.

For sceptics in Taiwan, Mr Wang’s comments called China’s sincerity into question.

The next big problems will come with the Olympic Games next month in Beijing. Chinese scholars have proposed that the Chinese and Taiwanese teams be arranged to enter the stadium together at the opening ceremony.

“But while Beijing would sell that as a ‘goodwill gesture’, many of our citizens would feel humiliated,” says a national security adviser to Mr Ma. “People would think that Beijing is parading us to the world as a ‘part of China’.”

A further test will come in August with the inauguration of a new president in Paraguay, Taiwan’s last remaining South American diplomatic ally. Fernando Lugo, the president-elect, has pledged to switch ties to China. If this happens, Taipei could see it as a provocation.

In September, China and Taiwan will face an even bigger challenge when the United Nations’ General Assembly convenes. For almost 20 years, Taiwan has filed annual applications for UN membership.

Yu Keli, one of China’s most prominent Taiwan scholars, says that Taipei should refrain this year if it is serious about improving cross-strait relations. But any such decision by Mr Ma would be seen at home as an act of surrender.

“There is a sense of celebration today, but we are only starting,” says a US diplomat.