In the bad old days of the cold war, neither the US nor the Soviet Union was ever too bothered about making friends with uncomfortable allies. Ideology always trumped principle and both Washington and Moscow used to turn a blind eye to bad behaviour.
It is more difficult now, in this post-ideological age. At least, that is what Joe Biden, US vice-president, must have been thinking on his trip to the former Soviet republics of Georgia and Ukraine this week.
At Munich in February, Mr Biden coined the phrase: “It is time to press the reset button” with Russia. Barack Obama went to do just that in Moscow this month. It is not an easy task. Russia still likes to see itself locked in competition with its superpower rival.
Like all good deputies, Mr Biden’s job this week was to pick up the pieces: to hasten over to Kiev and Tbilisi and reassure both countries that their desire to be best friends with America will not be affected by the process. He repeated the line of Mr Obama in Moscow: “We reject the notion of spheres of influence as 19th century ideas that have no place in the 21st century. We stand by the principle that sovereign states have a right to make their own decisions, to chart their own foreign policy, to choose their own alliances.”
Those words went down well in both places. But there was not a complete meeting of minds, for two important reasons.
In the first place, Mr Biden was bringing a mixed message, albeit politely stated, that the political process in both countries leaves much to be desired.
In Kiev, he talked about “political posturing” of the main leaders, whose personal rivalries have caused a virtual gridlock of government. It was a slap on the wrist. In Tbilisi he was more specific, calling for more media freedom, more participatory democracy and guarantees of an “orderly transition” of power. It was a clear signal to Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia’s impetuous president, that his rule is too high-handed and intolerant.
Second, Mr Biden was talking to audiences in both countries that simply do not trust the present Russian leadership of Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev. They know that Moscow sees the former Soviet space as a “privileged” sphere of influence, whatever Washington may think, and they very much doubt that the US can do much to change the mindset.
There is a temptation to see Mr Obama and Mr Biden as just too nice and too reasonable in the face of some cynical gentlemen in the Kremlin. Yet that in turn would exaggerate the coherence and far-sightedness of Russia’s policy. Just as Washington has made some uncomfortable friends, so have Mr Putin and Mr Medvedev.
Two weeks before the anniversary of a disastrous five-day war between Russia and Georgia, it is worth remembering Moscow’s colossal blunder that followed: it recognised the independence of two tiny secessionist regions: South Ossetia, the cause of the war, and Abkhazia. Now it does not know what to do with them.
The ruler of South Ossetia, Eduard Kokoity, is a former Soviet wrestling champion turned businessman and small-time warlord. He wants his tiny, impoverished state, whose only income in recent years has come from smuggling, to be reabsorbed by Russia – the last thing Moscow wants.
Abkhazia, on the other hand, is a very attractive territory on the shores of the Black Sea, much favoured by the Russian elite as a holiday destination. Its president, Sergei Bagapsh, does not want to swap Georgian domination for the Russian variety. But he may be given little choice, as Russia establishes new naval and army bases, takes over his railways and buys up the best holiday villas.
In recognising the self-determination of both places, Mr Putin has destabilised his own back yard in the north Caucasus, where several of the neighbouring republics of Chechnya, including Dagestan and Ingushetia, are increasingly restless.
In a sensible post-cold war world, Moscow and Washington would realise that they have a common interest in defusing the conflicts and building democratic institutions. But Mr Putin wants to prove that the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, and the Rose one in Georgia, were disastrous mistakes of pro-western democracy. He has every interest in promoting infighting and instability, just to prove the point.
