Financial Times FT.com

How a euro-molehill became a mountain

By Ralph Atkins

Published: August 24 2008 18:48 | Last updated: August 24 2008 18:48

What has made global economic events so compelling in the past year has been the pace at which perceptions have changed. The eurozone is no exception. After a growth sprint at the start of the year, the region’s economic fortunes appeared to deteriorate as fast as those of Liu Xiang, China’s hobbled Olympic hurdler. Growth contracted in the second quarter for the first time since the euro’s launch in 1999, while the US expanded.

But has the eurozone’s outlook really worsened so dramatically? Change is usually incremental in the bloc’s economy, reflecting cultural and structural differences with more dynamic parts of the world. The latest evidence – August’s purchasing managers’ indices released last week – suggested prospects had stabilised in the third quarter, albeit with the eurozone still dicing with recession. So here, at the risk of making my job less exciting, are a dozen reasons why the eurozone economic malaise might have been exaggerated and why we could even see positive signs in the coming months.

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