UK election polls and markets

Early in the UK election cycle, pollsters expected Conservative polls to steadily rise, widening the gap with Labour, but in recent weeks this gap has narrowed.

This graphic tracks the most recent polls (top graph) and compares it to intrade’s predictive markets on the election outcome (middle graph) and sterling against the US dollar (bottom graph).

The graphic updates automatically with the most recent polls.

The top graphic uses data from the UK Polling Report, which tracks the most recent polling data from sources throughout the UK. The graphic shows the results of polls as they are released.

The intrade data compare three futures markets: Labour to win, Conservatives to win and the Liberal Democrats to win.

Intrade is a private trading platform that allows members to trade between themselves on event outcomes - in this case the winner of the general election.

The currencies’ graphic compares the value of the pound against a basket of currencies of the UK’s main trading partners.

Currency trading is one of the markets that reacts most to British political news, for example in the last few weeks, the pound has fluctuated in response to concerns about a hung parliament.